There are a multitude of reasons for the poor play that we’ve seen Amar’e exhibit so far.

They are as follows:

1. Lack of a true point guard

2. Lack of spacing for Amar’e to work with

3. Almost non-existent use of the Pick and Roll (his forte)

4. More of his shots coming from out of his high percentage range

The start to this season for Amar’e has essentially been a perfect storm of everything that could have possibly gone wrong.  Though his shot attempts are down compared to last years they are actually in line with the rest of his career.  What is down in a glaring way is his FG percentage.  Amar’e coming into this year had 6 straight years of above 50% FG percentage if you skip over his injury plagued 05/06.  That FG percentage is a direct result of everything mentioned above and is also why his scoring average has dipped below 20 a game so far for the first time in 8 seasons.

The lack of a true point guard is what has really brought Amar’e down to earth this year and is also a direct result of the lack of pick and rolls.  For the first 8 years of his career he was graced by playing along side one of the best point guards ever in Steve Nash.  This scenario helped Amar’e morph into the player he is today.  Then last year he got to play with Ray Felton who also could play up  Amar’e's abilities the way Nash did.  It wasn’t until the Carmelo Anthony trade that he didn’t fully mesh with Billups and his numbers began to trend downward.

Amar’e knows how to play one type of offense and one type only.  An offense in which he has a true point guard to run the pick and roll with.  Amar’e is one of the best forwards in the league at rolling off the pick and barreling through the lane.

So far this season it’s more than safe to say that Toney Douglas, Mike Bibby and Iman Shumpert haven’t filled the void.  Baron Davis might not be the answer but at this juncture any point guard that understands how to distribute to Amar’e in the way he’s used to will be a major improvement.

Lack of spacing for Amar’e to work with.  This simply comes down to learning to play on the offensive side of the ball along side Tyson Chandler.  With an extremely brief training camp and only a few preseason games there was little time to work out the kinks between the two.

Amar’e thrives in an offense with tons of open space.  Being able to post up and drive or run the pick and roll and glide effortlessly through an open lane has been the key to his success and field goal percentage his entire career.  Never before has he played with a space eater like Tyson Chandler( let’s just not count that Phoenix Sun Shaq experiment).

Amar’e himself spoke about the spacing issues recently,

“Right now it’s kind of hard to judge because as a team we don’t have great spacing, so whenever we do roll, Tyson or myself is running into three or four opposing players in the lane. I think once we get better spacing, it will open the court for Tyson and I to get baskets in the paint. We’ll get it together.”

When Chandler is on the floor with Amar’e he has trouble working the way that he’s used to.  His greatest weapon in the past has been facing up his defender and having two options.  Popping a mid range jumper or a shot fake and drive to the basket for a higher percentage shot.  But with Chandler on the floor this process begins out further than usual and has also forced Amar’e to settle for those deeper jumpers on a more frequent basis.

To steal some great stat work from ESPN New York, Amar’e has had the most success with Josh Harrellson so far and to a lesser extent Jared Jeffries, here are the stats.

Minutes Points Per 40 Rebs per 40 FG% +/-

Chandler 289 18.4 8.9 35.9 -57

Harrellson 57 33.0 9.1 51.6 +23

Jeffries 30 28.0 4.0 47.1 -6

As most of you have already figured out there’s a simple reason for these very troubling stats.  Chandler plays a rough in the paint style of basketball.  While Jeffries strays outside of the paint more than Chandler.  Even more so of the three, Harrellson plays much more outside of the paint.  Frequently spotting up for threes and leaving Amar’e all the floor space he needs to go to work.

As for the pick and roll situation this one has many different causes.  For starters the lack of a true point guard has made this more difficult.  The most dangerous pick and roll partners have a few assets.  The point guard is dangerous on the pull up and capable of breaking it down and getting to the hole off the pick.  While the big man can pick and pop from 18 feet out or so and can terrorize his way through the paint on the roll.

For his entire career he had that in Nash and even last season he had that with Felton and then to some extent Billups.  But this season he has had nothing of the kind.  If Douglas is on the floor he’s capable of knocking down a deep ball but not at truly being a threat to get to the hole.  While Iman Shumpert is on the floor you have the opposite, he’s more than capable of breaking his defender down but is no where near a threat from the outside.  Bibby on the other hand is really neither at this point in his career.  He’s far to slow to break a defender down and he can spot up but can’t necessarily get an effective long range shot off of his own dribble.

That leaves only Melo as the next Knicks consistent ball handler.

There’s no question that Melo has both of those assets, he’s at the top of the league in breaking a defender down and shooting off the dribble.  But there’s two major problems with them running the pick and roll.

For starters Melo isn’t used to running the pick and roll as the ball handler.  For most of his career the offenses he played in consisted of feeding him the ball and letting him go to work on his defender.

Meanwhile D’Antoni doesn’t seem to be calling for pick and rolls with any frequency at all.  If only there was a statistic to measure the amount of pick and roll plays the Knicks have run.  But having watched every Knicks game and just about every play I can say that the amount of pick and rolls called has been near nonexistent.  There’s a major problem offensively when you aren’t calling the play that utilizes your second best scorer in the most effective manner.

This is why Knicks fans are calling for his head.  He clearly doesn’t have his finger on the pulse of this offense even though he’s considered an offensive mastermind.  Any coach from high school basketball to the pros understands the necessity of the pick and roll.  Even with poor players it’s still an effective play call.

Last but not least, the issue that more of Amar’e's field goals are coming from further outside his comfort range.  We know Amar’e can shoot from beyond the arch but by no means is it where he’s most effective.

The lack of spacing coupled with the lack of pick and roll play calls have pushed out the location where Amar’e has been taking most of his shots.

When in the past he’d have set a pick and rolled for a shot in the lane or pulled up over the defender at 18 feet that’s not happening anymore.  Due to the lack of pick and rolls the majority of the time Amar’e sees the ball is in an isolation manner.  He receives the ball about 18 feet out in close proximity to one of the elbows.  He’s very capable of driving or pulling up for an 18 footer in these cases but his threat of driving is depleted by Tyson’s presence in the middle.

With one of his major threats downplayed he’s been forced to pull up outside much more.  But another aspect of Tyson’s presence that is overlooked has been the matchup that Amar’e draws on a nightly basis.

When in the past Amar’e drew the opposing teams center it allowed him to use his speed and athleticism to blow by the defender.  But now that Tyson is commanding the opposing teams center on the Knicks offensive side of the ball, Amar’e is matched up with the opposing team’s power forward.

For quite some time it was said that Amar’e needed to get back to playing his natural position of power forward.  But one of his greatest advantages was being that much quicker than the opponents center.

All in all there are an unbelievable amount of reasons why Amar’e is struggling so mightily so far this season.

Will the return of Baron Davis change the circumstances or is Amar’e just not cut out to produce at his previous level on an offense with Tyson and Melo?

Knicks fans better hope that the presence of a capable point guard will be the answer, if not then this Knicks team has been assembled in a manner that no small tweak is going to fix.

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Jarvis Crittenton, Terrence Williams, Russell Westbrook and Dwayne Wade.

What do these names have in common?

They are all players that a serious portion of basketball followers have compared Iman Shumpert to over the past eight months.

There is some SERIOUS discrepancy in those comparisons.

The reason for this is that Shumpert was not a highly regarded prospect when he opted to forgo his senior year at Georgia Tech and declare for the draft last May.

Heading into the draft, there was very little buzz about Shumpert. No serious mock draft had him remotely close to the lottery picks.  Most had him as a fringe teen pick, likely to be selected in the lower 20′s. Shumpert hadn’t done much to make anybody think that it was outrageous that he would go that late in the first round.

At Georgia Tech, Shumpert had a good-but-not-spectacular three seasons.  His freshman season resulted in averages of 11 points, five assists, and four rebounds per game. Those averages all dropped slightly in his sophomore year, to 10 PPG, 4 APG, and 3.5 RPG.  And then finally in his Junior year and last season at Georgia Tech, his scoring rose all the way to 17 PPG, his APG dropped further to 3.5 and his rebounding rose to six a game.

During those three years there were two constants. First, he shot the ball at a terrible clip.  His field goal percentage hovered around 40 percent all three years and his steals fluctuated between two and three a game.  These two stats were seemingly his biggest asset and liability coming into the 2011 Draft.

This was not exactly a recipe for success.  In May 2011, ESPN’s Chad Ford said, “Shumpert has hired an agent, ending his college eligibility. It’s a surprise move for a player who is projected as a second round prospect at best right now.” In June, NBADraft.net echoed that sentiment in predicting he’d be an early second round pick.

At the combine Shumpert turned heads with his athleticism and vertical which consequently helped him shoot up into the first round.  It was at this point that Shumpert was drawing comparisons to Crittenton and Williams.

After being drafted 17th overall by the Knicks and having played in only nine games after a shortened training camp there isn’t even any question already that’s he’s surpassed those aforementioned comparisons. Crittenton has already played himself out of the league while Williams has been a huge disappointment four seasons in to his career, seemingly not growing as a player at all.

Even from the first Knicks game of the season, a couple of things were clear.  Shumpert’s shot had improved drastically during the lockout and he is an absolute terror on the defensive side of the ball.

Shumpert went down in the first game with a knee injury which forced him out of the next four contests.  But he’s now been back for the past eight games and has already earned himself the team’s starting shooting guard role.  While there’s no question his shot has improved, his shot selection has not grown at the rate that the shot itself has.  Chances are Mike D’Antoni’s 12 seconds or less offense hasn’t helped hone that skill either.

Where Shumpert has impressed most is on the defensive side of the ball.  He’s currently third in the league in steals per game at 2.33.  He is a defensive animal, not just in the passing lanes but his on ball defense, certainly impressive by rookie standards.

While it was already clear that he was going to be an effective rebounder from the guard position, one of the larger questions was if he could play the point at the NBA level.  That is still up for debate but he has shown that he’s more than capable of being a swing guard and manning the point at times.  He gets a little reckless with the ball every once in a while but has also made some beautiful passes.

Another downside of playing for this Mike D’Antoni run team has been the offensive style. D’Antoni is no longer a run-and-gun coach with his current roster.  The Knicks mostly play a half-court, isolated offense.  Shumpert is best suited right now for an up-and-down team.  He has shown flashes of brilliance in transition and is so fast with the ball on the break it’s almost as if he glides up and down the court.

That is where the Westbrook and Wade comparisons come into play.  Those making such comparisons might have gotten ahead of themselves for now,  but he does play in a similar manner to those two All-Stars.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him progress to that level if he can improve his shot selection.

In just nine games played this season, Shumpert has already proved the doubters wrong.  With averages of 12 points, 3 assists, 3 boards, 2 steals and a three a game but shooting well under 40%.  By stuffing the stat sheet he’s already proved he should have been a top 10 pick.

From the Crittenton/Williams comparisons to the newly assessed Westbrook/Wade, he has already come a long way in a short time.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIUvxbEmFOY

www.youtube.com/watch?v=fz3sKI_0Oe0

There are many Knicks fans whose first reaction will be “great we’ve got a big man but no CP3.”  Despite rumors of Amar’e for Paul, it would have been tremendously disrespectful for the Knicks management to up and deal him after all-but resurrecting this team and basketball city.

Let’s explore the impact that Tyson Chandler will have on this roster, sans Billups and Turiaf.

Tyson Chandler critics argue that he has only averaged around 8 points and 8 boards a game so far in his career and question how much of an impact he will make.  Yet, pure number crunchers fail to realize that up until the Dallas Mavericks added Chandler to their core last season they were incapable of winning that elusive ring.

It is hard to argue against the notion that Chandler put the Mavs over the top with his defensive tenacity, a championship-winning ingredient the Knicks have sorely lacked since Ewing and Camby departed.  Chandler would also take some weight off Amare’s shoulders and allow him to slide over to his natural power forward position.  We’ve seen how much more effective Amar’e is at playing the 4 and he should remain healthier as well.

Besides Chandler, STAT and Melo, the rest of the roster looks to be Fields, Shumpert, Douglas, Balkman, Rautins and Walker.  That’s 9 players and it looks unlikely that Derrick Brown return, leaving 3 players needed to meet the active roster.  There are rumors the Knicks will have competition in resigning Shawne Williams, but let’s suppose he’s back too, leaving them with 10 players of a total 15 total roster spots.

Without any further moves, the Knicks probable starting lineup looks like Chandler, Amar’e, Melo, Fields and Douglas.  Now obviously that isn’t a concrete contender, but that’s a playoff team.  A couple small moves and they are real contenders in the East.  Some of the names floating around like J.J. Barea, Ramon Sessions or perhaps Baron Davis, if he slips through the cracks of the amnesty provision waiver process, would be great PG adds.  Toney Douglas made it pretty clear in the playoffs last year that he was not ready to run the show for the Knicks.

Again, while Chandler may not be as sexy as the long-coveted CP3, he arguably gives the Knicks the best front-court in the game and should create a ripple effect amongst players that this team is building to win it all.  Two generations of Knicks fans have been waiting for a ticker-tape parade down the Canyon of Heroes.  The signing of Tyson Chandler gets them one step closer.  Let’s hope Coach D’Antoni and Defensive Coordinator Mike Woodson are up to the task of coaching this team to consistent W’s.

creepiest Jeff Foster picture we could find...

If you have been on Twitter, and you follow me (@ralphguerrero, by the way), then the one thing you are absolutely sure of is that there is one player I feel the Knicks need to get to a hold of. I have been saying it for weeks now.  Jeff Foster.  I have been clamoring on Twitter, Facebook and every talk radio show I could get on!

Now it seems like is everyone is catching Foster fever as well.  Various major media reports are coming in now that the Knicks are very high on Foster.  Word is they might even go as far as to offer him the full mid-level exception.  The number of years is not known yet, but we know they will be very hesitant to go more than one year and dip into next years cap space.

Of course we all have dreams of Chris Paul, Dwight Howard or even Deron Williams.  We know at this moment, the guys at the world’s most famous arena are working the phones contacting agents, players and general managers.  No agreements can be orally agreed upon until December 9^th.  Although honestly, who thinks that is not going on?  I mean really, December 9^th might look more like NFL free agency.  Players might be signing contracts at 12:01 am.

I don’t expect any deal to go down for CP3 or Dwight before the season.  There are rumors that the Magic might try to work something out before the season if Dwight makes it clear on his intent to leave, but that seems like a long shot.  Any chance the Knicks have to land Paul seem to be contingent on getting at least one other team involved.  And a complicated three to four team deal would likely be accomplished later in the season.

Time is of the essence however.  For any player the Knicks trade for, December 31^st is the key date.  Any one the Knicks can get a hold of via trade will want it done on or before then.  As long as the player is on the team before the start of the New Year, they can then get the absolute maximum amount if they resign.

With the new CBA, a player who is traded can not sign a new contract with Bird-rights until six months after they are acquired.  So as long as Chris or Dwight is on the Knicks roster by December 31^st, they can sign for the maximum (at least 5 years, 100 million) on July 1^st, 2012.

The fact is yes, Knick fans have dreams of their own big three in the Mecca.   For that to happen though, the NBA would have to trade him to the Knicks.  Yes, David Stern would have to send him packing to New York.  After a summer of hearing nothing but “competitive balance”, can you really count on that?  So the focus right now, while still keeping the options open, has to be to improve the team in any way possible.  I believe Foster greatly improves the roster in every category the Knicks are lacking.

Yes, we all saw the picture of David Stern and Billy Hunter embracing, although that doesn’t mean a deal has been completed. Yet with the signing of the CBA agreement on the horizon, speculative roster talk is back in action.  Once the ink officially dries there are a few new regulations which will impact the Knicks upcoming off-season (2 weeks or so) roster moves. And as most of you already know, there are quite a few moves that need to be made.

Headed into the season opener on December 25^th against the Boston Celtics, the Knicks only have 9 players under contract, which will likely jump to 11 when they come to terms with draft pick Iman Shumpert and pending Derrick Brown’s qualifying offer already on the table.  The Knicks already check in at just under $60 million committed to the 2011/12 season, not including Shumpert or Brown’s salaries.  Already over the ~ $58 million cap, the Knicks will have to turn to league minimum salaried players and their altered mid-level exception.

Although the new CBA will include another Amnesty Provision (similar to the one in 2005), providing teams to void a contract, it appears unlikely that the Knicks will utilize this before the season begins.  If they do elect to use the Amnesty Provision, the candidates would be Renaldo Balkman or Ronny Turiaf.  However, Turiaf comes off the books at the end of the season and Balkman only strikes about a million and a half against the cap the next two years, which wouldn’t bring them under the cap either way.

With 11 players on the roster they’ll have 4 spots to fill-out the 15-man squad.  Of those open spots, it is safe to think the Knicks will sign one or two unrestricted free agents, which include Anthony Carter, Jared Jeffries, Roger Mason, Shawne Williams and Shelden Williams.  To speculate on who they will bring back out of that crew is difficult, but I’d assume Shawne Williams will be in the fold this season.

Naturally, this will likely leave the Knicks with 2-3 roster spots to fill a plethora of holes.  As we discussed around the draft, the Knicks need a big man who can rebound, a backup PG, a two-guard and a small forward.  We just can’t assume that Iman Shumpert will fill any holes his rookie year.

A major roadblock to round out this team is the new mid-level exception regulations, whereby taxpaying teams will not have the same mid-level exception as will the rest of the league.  Those under the cap will maintain the $5 million MLE, but those over will only be able to offer $3 million.  Therefore, the Knicks will be forced to use the subordinate MLE and offer league minimum salaries.

One of the roster spots could go to players already within the Knicks system like Jerome Jordan or Josh Harrellson.  Harrellson proved that he could rebound in college, but asking him to contribute beyond that is a lot.  Judging from Adriatic league stats Jordan improved offensively, but is still mediocre on the boards.  The wise move would be to give Jordan a shot first, as he is clearly the more athletic of the two, and send Big Jorts to the D-League.

As for one of the other roster spots, here’s a suggestion that might not go over well with most Knicks fan:  perennially disappointing Kwame Brown is an unrestricted free agent in Charlotte and might be the best fit at this point.  The likes of Tyson Chandler, Nene and Dalembert will command a higher price than the Knicks have available.  Would Dalembert settle for the luxury tax MLE?  Maybe, but even if he were to agree to come to the Knicks he’d be a longer term cap commitment than would Kwame.

Giving Kwame that one year flier is worth a shot.  After all, he did finish out last season averaging about 8 points and 7 boards a game (not to mention nearly a double-double over the last month of the season).  Make no mistake, I am not saying he’s the next big thing or a long-term answer, but he could be a limited risk – high reward acquisition.  The only other name that might be consistently linked to the Knicks is Jamal Crawford.  The former Knick might command too high a price-tag, but he’d be a great add.

In the meantime, be thankful that we have an NBA season and don’t lose sight that this is still a rebuild.  In many respects the 2011/2012 season might be one of biding time.  Cue the relentless 24/7 Chris Paul chatter…starting now.

FROM: G. WILLIAM HUNTER

RE: SETTLEMENT

As you have heard, early Saturday morning, the NBA and the players reached a settlement in the Anthony antitrust case, the Minnesota lawsuit brought by several players and supported by your National Basketball Players Association following the disclaimer of interest voted by the Player Representatives less than two weeks ago. I offer my sincere congratulations for the significant achievements won on behalf of all players as a result of that settlement.

Over the next two weeks, the parties involved in the Anthony lawsuit will engage in a four-step process in an attempt to open training camps and free agency on December 9th and begin the 2011-12 season on Christmas Day.

• First, the parties are jointly drafting a written settlement agreement that memorializes the settlement agreement’s principal terms. That agreement may be completed as soon as this evening, and will be sent to you as soon as it is signed, either tonight or tomorrow.

• Second, the NBPA will need to get your authorization to once again serve as your collective bargaining representative with the NBA. The owners have made it a condition of the tentative litigation settlement that the players authorize the NBPA to transition from its current professional association status to a labor organization representing the players in collective bargaining.  Otherwise, the settlement of the litigation would become void if the NBPA is not in place as the players’ bargaining representative to negotiate a Collective Bargaining Agreement (“CBA”) prior to the start of player signings. Once the parties agree to the settlement terms, we will contact you about the authorization process. We expect to begin this process tomorrow morning.

• Third, once a majority of the players authorize the NBPA to act as the players’ collective bargaining representative and the NBA recognizes the “union,” the NBA and the NBPA will negotiate a new CBA, addressing the terms of the settlement agreement and other non-economic points (i.e., Commissioner Discipline, Drug Testing, and Workplace Rules). This process will likely begin no later than this Friday, December 2nd.

• Fourth, once the parties finish negotiations on the new CBA, that CBA will then be submitted to the newly-formed entire union membership for ratification. The ratification process will take place next week.

We believe the settlement agreement is a fair one that may rightfully serve as the basis for negotiations over a new 10-year CBA, with the players and owners retaining mutual options to terminate the agreement after 6 years. As mentioned, you will receive a copy of the agreement tonight or tomorrow.

In the interim, here are some highlights from the antitrust settlement agreement:

Collective Salaries Will Grow Consistent with 2005 CBA

Over the course of the 10-year agreement, collective player salaries and benefits will increase from $2.17 billion in 2010-11 to more than $3 billion by the end of the deal. If revenues exceed modest growth, we expect that collective player salaries will likely grow to over $3.5 billion. The average player salary will approach $8 million by the end of the deal.

Although players will not receive 57% of BRI as under the 2005 CBA, collective player salaries should experience the same annual salary growth as the last deal. Under the agreement, players will receive 50% of BRI, and if BRI exceeds projections, the players will receive 60.5% of all incremental dollars beyond projected BRI. This new percentage is designed to reach 51% by the sixth year of the deal. Conversely, the players will receive a symmetrical reduction in BRI if revenues fall short of projections.

Nonetheless, thanks to the enormous success projected for the NBA, league revenues should grow so high that our collective annual salary increases will favorably compare to the increases we received under the 2005 CBA. On average, under the last deal, the players received annual collective salary increases of $70 million per season. Under the new agreement, with modest BRI growth, even factoring in the collective salary decrease in 2011-12, the players will receive collective annual increases averaging at least $85 million each year over the term of the 10-year agreement. Beginning in 2012-13, we expect that collective salaries will increase by more than $100 million per season.

Even though players took a reduced percentage of BRI, no player contract will be rolled back, the minimum salary and rookie wage scales will not decrease, and the 2011-12 salary cap and luxury tax threshold will be no lower than it was last season. To give some perspective, by year 7 of the agreement, the luxury tax threshold is projected to reach approximately $90 million.

The Agreement Protects Guaranteed Contracts and Preserves the Middle Class

Alongside our differences over the split of revenues, the biggest dispute between the players and the owners stemmed from the league’s desire to impose a hard salary cap that would restrict player movement, leave no room for a middle class, and destroy guaranteed contracts. Our new agreement retains the soft cap with a harsher luxury tax. While the harsher tax may lead to shorter player contracts, the soft cap system still preserves the players’ rights to negotiate guaranteed contracts, protects the middle class, and should provide adequate opportunities for free agents to market their services. Some of our basis for this optimism includes:

• Complete Retention of the Bird Exception: Teams may continue to re-sign their own players without regard to the Salary Cap and without limitation other than the Maximum Player Salary. The Larry Bird Exception – the backbone of a soft cap system — remains untouched throughout the course of the agreement. Players signed with the Bird Exception may receive five-year contracts with maximum annual salary increases of 7.5%.

• Retention of a Meaningful Mid-Level Exception for All Teams: Many observers expected that the Mid-Level Exception, the vehicle that provides a market for low-, mid- and high-level free agents, would be significantly curtailed or disappear completely. The “Mid-Level” lives on throughout this agreement, at $5 million (and increasing over the course of the deal) for up to four years, every year. While the owners sought to prevent taxpaying teams from using this exception, the new agreement provides for its full $5 million use by any team up to $4 million over the luxury tax threshold. Any team with a Team Salary more than $4 million over the luxury tax may still enter the market and sign a player, with a “Mini Mid-Level” exception valued at $3 million for up to three years.

• Retention of the Bi-Annual Exception: This exception, valued at approximately $2 million per year for up to two years, continues to exist for non-taxpaying teams.

• New $2.5 Million “Room” Exception: The agreement contains a brand new exception that rewards teams for going under the Salary Cap to sign players. Once they use up their available cap room, teams will still be able to go into the market to sign a player for up to $2.5 million per year for up to two years under this new exception, designed to further stimulate player movement to non-taxpaying teams.

• Increased Minimum Team Salary: In an effort to force lower spending teams to remain active in the market, the Minimum Team Salary will be increased from its current level of 75% of the Salary Cap to 85% of the Salary Cap for the first two years of the agreement. Beginning in the third year of the deal, all teams must spend at least 90% of the Salary Cap on player salaries.

• Enhanced Trade Rules: Teams will have more flexibility to trade players to teams where they are wanted and who may wish to re-sign them using the Bird exception. Under the new rule, a non-taxpaying team may replace a player using 150% of the traded player’s salary, instead of 125% under the old rule. In addition, the concept of Base Year Compensation, which restricts trades, will be relaxed.

• Reduced Salary Cap “Holds”: Until they are renounced, re-signed or signed by another team, free agents traditionally have been included in Team Salary at an amount artificially higher than their last salary, to reflect the fact that they may re-sign with the team at a higher amount under the Bird exception. These cap holds will now be reduced for most free agents, thus freeing up additional cap room.

• Stretch Provision: For the first time ever, a team that waives a player owed salary under a guaranteed contract will “stretch” the player’s salary over a number of years for salary cap purposes, instead of having it apply only to the seasons under contract. This provision is designed to allow teams to free up room to sign players. Players will still receive their full guaranteed salary over an extended period of time.

• Amnesty: Likewise in an effort to allow teams to create room under the cap and tax threshold, each team will have the one-time opportunity to waive a player and remove his salary from its books for cap and tax purposes. Players waived under the amnesty provision will enter into a modified waiver process involving competing bids by teams with cap room, and will still receive their full guaranteed salary.

• Player Options and Extend and Trades: Despite efforts by the league to curtail these practices, players may still negotiate for options to extend their contract without limitation, and extend-and-trade transactions will still be permitted, further fostering player movement.

On balance, we hope and expect the above gains to lead to a more open and secure market for player services.

As mentioned above, on the flip side, the harshest element of the new system is the heavier luxury tax. Tax rates have significantly increased, from the old rate of $1-for-$1 to progressively higher rates that begin at $1.50 for a team $0-5 million over the luxury tax threshold and increase to $3.25 for a team $15-20 million over the threshold. In addition, a repeater tax of $1 will be added on for any team that is a taxpayer in 4 out of 5 seasons. Clearly, fewer teams (if any) are likely to venture very high above the tax threshold, which was a concession the players had to make to reach an overall settlement.

In conceding the harsher tax system, our most important objective was to retain at least some flexibility for teams at the lower end of the tax, and that objective was met, primarily by reducing the “cliff.” Traditionally, all luxury tax proceeds were distributed to non-taxpaying teams in equal 1/30th shares. Thus, by exceeding the tax threshold, a team was not only forced to pay the $1-for-$1 tax, but also — by virtue of its becoming a taxpayer, even if only slightly — forfeited its full share of the tax proceeds. The new agreement cuts the cliff in half, as the league may only distribute 50% of the tax proceeds to non-taxpaying teams. A team exceeding the threshold no longer faces as severe a penalty as it did in the past.

Another example of flexibility for low taxpaying teams is in the concept of the $4 million “apron.” The owners insisted not only on harsher tax rates, but also on limiting taxpaying teams’ ability to sign players, with a lower mid-level exception and the phasing out of sign-and-trade transactions for taxpayers. One of the last points negotiated, however, was a $4 million “apron” that allows teams to exceed the luxury tax threshold by $4 million and still acquire a player with the full $5 million mid-level exception or by sign-and-trade. Again, a low taxpaying team is not as severely punished and can remain in the market for players.

There may be some silver lining in the cloud of the harsher tax. To the extent teams heed the harsh tax and commit to shorter player contracts, more teams with room under the Salary Cap will be in the market each season, and players could see enhanced opportunity for movement. Only time will tell if these improved market conditions will take shape, and if the owners’ stated objective of improved on-court competition among teams — and therefore increased revenue for all to share — will actually come to pass.

The Agreement Includes Marked Improvements in Restricted Free Agency

There can be no question that the fate of restricted free agents has improved significantly with this agreement.

Restricted free agents are players who have completed their four-year rookie scale contracts (first-round picks), and second-round picks and undrafted free agents after each of their first three seasons. A restricted free agent’s prior team could retain the right to match any Offer Sheet he may get from a new team simply by making a Qualifying Offer of a one-year contract at a fixed raise. Restricted free agents will enjoy several key enhancements under the new agreement.

• Shortened Match Period: Traditionally, a restricted free agent’s prior team could take up to 7 days to decide whether to match another team’s offer. For the offering team, simply knowing that its salary cap could be tied up for a full week during the frenzied free agency rush usually prevented the team from making an initial offer. Under the new agreement, the match period has been reduced from 7 to 3 days, thus hopefully encouraging teams to bid on restricted free agents.

• Enhanced Qualifying Offers: Teams can no longer lowball a restricted free agent with a qualifying offer far below his actual value. Players who are deemed “starters” — starting 41 games or playing 2000 minutes on average over his prior two seasons — will now receive a significantly higher qualifying offer, in some instances amounting to several million dollars more than they would have in the past.

• Guaranteed Qualifying Offers: In the past, teams could retain the right to match offers by offering a non-guaranteed qualifying offer. Such a practice will now be forbidden, as all qualifying offers must be fully guaranteed.

• New 30% Max Salary: Since 1998, the highest salary a player with less than 7 service years could earn was limited to approximately 25% of the Salary Cap. Now, for the first time, a young star player finishing his rookie scale contract can earn a Max Salary equal to 30% of the Cap, if they earn certain All-NBA or All-Star honors, thus raising the bar for all high performing players.

The Agreement Contains Enhanced Player Benefits & Revenue Sharing

The new agreement contains two final elements that bear mention:

• New Benefits Pool: Each season, 1% of BRI (approximately $40 million this year) will be set aside in a New Benefits Pool. This pool will fund a new post-career annuity payable to players between the ages of 35-50 and/or a new welfare benefit plan that players can draw on to pay for health, life, disability, and long term care insurance, and likely also for educational purposes, including to pay tuition for yourself or your children. The new plans will likely be funded with pre-tax dollars so long as they are used in the prescribed manner. As a separate matter, this fund will pay certain overages in negotiated salaries not already covered by the players’ 10% escrow withholding. The owners dropped their demand for an unlimited escrow, and no player will ever have at risk more than 10% of his salary in any season.

• Revenue Sharing: While the players sacrificed by accepting a lower BRI percentage than in the past, many owners also will make a significant sacrifice for revenue sharing. More importantly, for the first time, this new revenue sharing arrangement among the owners will be memorialized in an agreement with the players. The owners have unveiled a more aggressive revenue sharing plan than currently exists, and the plan will shift tens of millions of dollars from high revenue to low revenue teams. The owners will agree in writing to continue this revenue sharing plan throughout the 10 years of the agreement.

For all the above reasons, we support this settlement of the antitrust case. We appreciate your trust and solidarity and look forward to working through the process described above in the very near future so we can get back to doing what we all want to do: play basketball. We expect the authorization, recognition, and negotiation process will wrap up in the next several days so we can present you a new CBA for player ratification.

On behalf of Derek Fisher and the other NBPA officers — Matt Bonner, Keyon Dooling, Maurice Evans, James Jones, Roger Mason, Chris Paul, Theo Ratliff and Etan Thomas — I thank you for your support. I will be in touch shortly with further details and logistical arrangements for our next steps.

G.W.H.

Last night, the NBA fired back in an email statement to the NY Times, blasting the Forbes report as “inaccurate” and saying the “estimates do not reflect reality.”  The statement added, “The league lost money every year of the just expiring CBA.”   The Times includes the full statement which runs completely counter to the Forbes report.